Malaysia's Election Gamble In The Face Of Rising Discontent

Abdullah Badawi considers the number 13 lucky, so it did not surprise observers when he called a snap general election yesterday on February 13. But he is putting his superstition to the supreme test at a time when voter discontent is rising against his five-year-old administration.

The prime minister's approval rating has fallen to record lows, while most of Malaysia's ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities say they no longer support the government because of its long-standing policy of preferential treatment for the Malay majority.

Mr Abdullah has sought to reform some aspects of the preferential treatment programme, but to little avail against determined opposition from the ranks of his United Malays National Organisation. A poor showing could weaken Mr Abdullah against party rivals and even lead to his downfall.

One alarming sign for the government is the erosion of support among ethnic Indians. Although they make up only 8 per cent of the population, they have been among the government's staunchest supporters until recently. But the sudden destruction of several Hindu temples for property development has added to complaints about the alleged marginalisation of Indians and provoked a rare protest by activist groups in November.

Ethnic Chinese, who make up a quarter of the population, have long complained that opportunities for them are narrowing because the government reserves most state jobs and university places for Malays.

The minorities provide key swing votes in a number of parliamentary constituencies. Attention will focus on Penang, the only one of Malaysia's 13 states that has an ethnic Chinese majority. It is also the home of both Mr Abdullah and the de facto opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim.

The government is arguing that protest votes for the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action party, the biggest opposition group, would reduce minority representation in the ruling coalition, where their interests are supported by the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress.

The government has sought to win support by unveiling special economic zones, including infrastructure projects, in important regions, including Penang, Johor (Umno's biggest support base), the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah (centres of past opposition) and Malaysia's east coast (the heartland of the opposition Islamic Party of Malaysia).

Even opposition politicians concede that they will not be able to unseat the government. However, they hope to reduce its majority to less than two-thirds of the 222 parliamentary seats for the first time since 1969. The threshold is important since it would deny the government the ability to change the constitution.

The government also has several other advantages, including control of the media, a large patronage machine and an extensive grassroots operation. More-over, ethnic Malays tend to rally around the government to protect Malay political dominance whenever there is a shift among the minorities to opposition parties.

A booming economy, with expected growth of 6 per cent this year, could prevent splits among Malay voters - as happened in 1999 when the sacking of Mr Anwar as deputy prime minister and his subsequent jailing led to a surge of Malay support for the Islamic party.

But Mr Anwar is hoping to make inroads and has drawn large crowds recently of mixed Malay, Chinese and Indian voters.

Mr Abdullah may have taken a gamble in calling an election now, but the odds appear to be in his favour. (Financial Times)

***** Will BN get a two-thirds majority? Difficult to say. Chances are they'll succeed in getting it. Hopefully Umno will be given a tough fight all the way and lose a considerable number of seats. That would be splendid news. A weakened Umno is the best thing that can happen to Malaysia. It will give the other BN component parties a stronger voice and greater bargaining power to negotiate a more equitable deal for all Malaysians. A stronger opposition would also provide the necessary check and balance which is sorely missing at the moment.
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